Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x781b1f0ba112bbbaab511db1360f825c25d0cb3c9d14940735c990f89f9019de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 62c | 2,242$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 1,662$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.29 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked No | 61c | 1,640$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.71 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 38c | 1,264$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.98 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,135$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.34 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 1,079$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.59 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 36c | 979.82$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 64c | 733.04$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 37c | 501$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 64c | 499.66$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.88 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…0fe1backed No | 60c | 362.09$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 65c | 283.52$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 63c | 240$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 63c | 240$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…a0eebacked Yes | 39c | 232.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 64c | 221.85$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed No | 66c | 220.56$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 64c | 213.81$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Yes | 36c | 201$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 184.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 59c | 178$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 38c | 156.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 63c | 156$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…6e4dbacked Yes | 34c | 149.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 30c | 146.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 64c | 131.48$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 66c | 102.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 35c | 99.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…6807backed Yes | 34c | 87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92de…30b4backed No | 59c | 83.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 81.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 60c | 80.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 68c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 66c | 59.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…a324backed No | 61c | 57.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed No | 57c | 57.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 36c | 54.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef9…8f58backed No | 69c | 53.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 60c | 52.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 51.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 36c | 50.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad5…12e9backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…13e1backed No | 59c | 49.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…a81ebacked Yes | 35c | 49.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 65c | 43.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 41.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 41.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 60c | 40.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…7be7backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…e0d7backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 65c | 39.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 59c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 59c | 39.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 35.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…3046backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 29.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 59c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 25.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 62c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa851…2313backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…4437backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…f90bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Yes won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.