Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ad42f13a4ed410e1244bc45a3f33fd19f212bec44b47906ca9fff6e9fcf40cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked Yes | 12c | 600.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 537.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.54 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd4…5383backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 19c | 440.03$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 411.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.07 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 77c | 364.36$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.86 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 299.89$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.16 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…7a6ebacked Yes | 62c | 255.06$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 14c | 235$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 12c | 222.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.33 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed Yes | 14c | 144.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.46per pick | 38cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 12c | 114$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…6b9dbacked No | 78c | 105.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 100.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 75c | 97.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 28c | 44.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 41.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 35.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 79c | 30.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaeb…5a2abacked No | 73c | 17.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?this page
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.