TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,438 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No70c1,713$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.721163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick36cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked No74c1,636$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.45977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes30c1,406$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.28528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes29c1,320$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.664254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes32c1,134$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.2414325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed No69c904.88$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8bb…4282backed No67c689.9$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c516.03$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2415148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes26c503.98$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.031250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No70c499.38$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8111039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e15…a0eebacked Yes30c367.34$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No67c330.64$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.42742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9719931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed No70c259.32$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+231.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x278b…43bfbacked Yes29c257.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3872…bb1dbacked Yes29c228.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+136.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes25c189.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2710836.1%39 W · 69 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No73c165.75$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No65c165.47$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.911346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd4…5383backed Yes32c157.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No65c154.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.061457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9832…6e4dbacked Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-59%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No66c136.52$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No68c134.28$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.482937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc85f…0fe1backed Yes26c129.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.96771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5cd…6055backed Yes35c123.07$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No71c121.5$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes33c118.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.629913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No69c118.01$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.721145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No71c115$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.531850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x815a…af37backed Yes30c109.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.75560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+65.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.181668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No65c92.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes27c85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3511334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c85$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.352766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed No65c77.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b92…0a99backed Yes31c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0f…1011backed No74c73.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.94683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+33.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No70c69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.65771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2caf…36f7backed Yes30c66.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+335.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No66c65.47$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.261844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x023d…3431backed Yes33c65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No66c63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.423450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No65c61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.333661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+182.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c60.95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.161172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No66c60.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.363056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Yes26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes28c52.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes25c52.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.146139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes25c50.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes31c50.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5530918.1%56 W · 253 L-29.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x05f7…22bcbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+113.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed No64c48.53$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No69c48.44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.022142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed No66c43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No71c42.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.091163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No69c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No73c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552560%15 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed No69c41.17$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124854.2%26 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+56.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x088d…b830backed Yes34c39.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked No50c36.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c35.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.551369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No68c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.881566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No70c32.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.712161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No71c31.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.151553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb58…ccd0backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No72c29.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd2c…0c32backed No71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No65c23.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.383873.7%28 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbff…f90bbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec49…5975backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x308f…8607backed No72c19.25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.39875%6 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No65c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.65666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No71c18.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.291442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No65c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed No69c17.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x875c…372fbacked No70c17.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No61c17.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.654360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.