Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15109a95a0365314fd7388fe1c16b67961ef41c7dec342fa4bf9e739134e082f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 60c | 451.14$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.39 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 384$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 37c | 380$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 356.69$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 10c | 305.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 40c | 277.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…5e5ebacked Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked No | 72c | 244.74$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 21c | 220.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 51c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 145.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…fa70backed No | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 23c | 124.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…2998backed No | 59c | 115.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…1f7fbacked No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…7e8abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 13c | 99.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 71c | 95.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 71c | 89.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 59c | 87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed No | 58c | 85.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…3eb3backed Yes | 44c | 68.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 72c | 45.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…0810backed Yes | 50c | 39.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 34.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…3fc9backed Yes | 42c | 25.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fb15backed No | 60c | 23.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 66c | 20.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.