Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fdebfd7955b9cc1707919c63f184e4c43d5bfdd8709d7fa76cf86fba0529d28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,483$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…3584backed Yes | 3c | 760$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 48c | 668.97$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.13 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…2cb4backed Yes | 2c | 606.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 56c | 545.72$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.28 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 38c | 521.23$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.37 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 412.85$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 12c | 320.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a15…3b35backed Yes | 31c | 283$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 223$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…8974backed No | 69c | 212$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 65c | 206.3$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 59c | 187.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f4…888bbacked Yes | 58c | 172.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 9c | 129.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 54c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 43c | 103.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 53c | 99.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 56c | 83.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 52c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 67.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…1484backed No | 69c | 66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…63a5backed Yes | 51c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f46…c3c0backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…64f1backed No | 70c | 47.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…0305backed Yes | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 55c | 41.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…6acebacked Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 34c | 32.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5e48backed Yes | 34c | 32.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dac…d285backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…cf03backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a5…1b38backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 39-40°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 41-42°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 43-44°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on February 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.