Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3236d7c2b8fdfb9764903b145fc1ebe77d8f768cb7ec65137613781cfb1164d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,793 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 45c | 602.27$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.22 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 57c | 583.03$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.57 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…807dbacked Yes | 42c | 431$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc618…e3a1backed No | 64c | 271$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +478.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…e2d5backed No | 65c | 235$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e2…4e48backed No | 65c | 223$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…0b61backed No | 65c | 195$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…6070backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…778ebacked Yes | 35c | 145$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c4…f544backed Yes | 35c | 135$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dac…89b0backed Yes | 35c | 134$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +400%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…0520backed Yes | 35c | 132$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…3c9fbacked Yes | 35c | 112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 93.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…c21fbacked No | 78c | 32.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 80cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…4ab7backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 17?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on March 17?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.