Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of August 3 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b972a4ea25679c68db1653c777060d8548259dec593361425b2dc51246ee6db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,391$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.31 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 61c | 1,272$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.83 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…17e8backed Yes | 1c | 854.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 49c | 807$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.79 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 599.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 34c | 380$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…6176backed Yes | 4c | 360$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 22c | 337.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 316.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.95 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 35c | 254.08$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 148.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 57c | 133.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 18c | 115.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…bfd9backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 47c | 99.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…5a56backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -12.9wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 49c | 23.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…0fddbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of August 3 2026?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of August 3 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of August 3 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of August 3 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of August 3 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of August 3 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,850 Week of August 3 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of August 3 2026?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of August 3 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.