Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4adcda9458c90371ce5bb5c1ce1c0724bf8a9e8c28544db30ed549fcb661034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x285e…f38cbacked Yes | 30c | 659.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 14.1%9 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 400$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…bcfdbacked No | 42c | 238.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.41 | 121 | 61.2%74 W · 47 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed Yes | 45c | 119.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 21c | 103.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed No | 55c | 84.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…87d3backed No | 31c | 62.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…4155backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f0…dc58backed Yes | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 47.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 35c | 43.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…39b2backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed No | 52c | 19.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on July 24?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on July 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on July 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on July 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on July 24?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on July 24?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on July 24?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on July 24?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.