Ukraine · resolved market
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0aec59af764e5a24e698626e631c8831ab76a21c51f9a23323f75508c28c43c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 0c | 7,369$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…6eacbacked No | 10c | 2,919$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 2,726$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,074$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,052$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…3f93backed No | 1c | 1,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 8c | 1,233$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,147$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 13c | 700$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 32c | 618.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 580$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…826dbacked No | 9c | 552.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed No | 11c | 529.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 6c | 447.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 435.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 391.23$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 63c | 309.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 260.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 37c | 207.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 58c | 180.6$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 28c | 149.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…08efbacked No | 21c | 142.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…2d58backed Yes | 72c | 139.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 68c | 121.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…e039backed Yes | 62c | 113.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed No | 42c | 110.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb007…2987backed Yes | 69c | 104.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4455…99f2backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…bc58backed No | 42c | 98.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…73d8backed Yes | 61c | 98.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 95.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…ad4dbacked No | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 46c | 76.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 75.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…ece8backed No | 42c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…ccf1backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…f15bbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…ec5bbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +178.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…3f04backed No | 38c | 47.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…68b5backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 56c | 35.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…279ebacked No | 37c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ef8cbacked No | 37c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…c3b4backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…c3ebbacked Yes | 59c | 18.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…bffebacked Yes | 59c | 17.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 74c | 13.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.