Movies · resolved market
Will Send Help or Iron Lung gross more on their opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ef1ef1feabb04152a348d9fbac4cd8b7f336d141d9bba65f3e9748f66337c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Send Helpof Send Help, Iron Lung
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Iron Lung | 16c | 58,628$9,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,293.78 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Iron Lung | 9c | 17,635$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Iron Lung | 1c | 11,055$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Iron Lung | 2c | 5,919$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Send Help | 66c | 4,196$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.83 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Iron Lung | 9c | 4,057$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.29 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Iron Lung | 13c | 2,107$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Iron Lung | 32c | 2,000$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Iron Lung | 1c | 1,875$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Send Help | 56c | 1,788$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.8 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Iron Lung | 8c | 1,610$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Iron Lung | 1c | 1,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…c75fbacked Iron Lung | 8c | 919.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…bdc4backed Iron Lung | 12c | 839.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9302…1e38backed Iron Lung | 19c | 637.1$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Iron Lung | 13c | 574.12$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Iron Lung | 29c | 490$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Send Help | 55c | 473.03$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.12 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked Iron Lung | 8c | 449.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…57b8backed Iron Lung | 2c | 440.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Send Help | 61c | 418.03$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…4b4bbacked Iron Lung | 12c | 361.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Send Help | 60c | 318.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed Send Help | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…6680backed Iron Lung | 27c | 239.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Iron Lung | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Iron Lung | 46c | 173.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Iron Lung | 20c | 142.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d5…81f6backed Iron Lung | 11c | 132.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Send Help | 77c | 131.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Send Help | 70c | 82.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…757fbacked Send Help | 61c | 80.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…5d7abacked Iron Lung | 20c | 74.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…23d1backed Send Help | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…9b41backed Send Help | 53c | 69.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf71…5570backed Iron Lung | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Send Help | 29c | 49.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Iron Lung | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Iron Lung | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Send Help | 62c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd130…2a7cbacked Send Help | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Send Help | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Send Help | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Iron Lung | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Send Help | 70c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…fecebacked Send Help | 55c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.