Music · resolved market
Will Spotify report greater than 745 million monthly active users?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4760d30fc4445f9e5890ee817dda5e131ff125acc7314b250bd3f43da5bd947e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 73c | 695$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 27c | 695$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b0…a994backed Yes | 77c | 218$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 190.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…be2bbacked Yes | 66c | 180.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 75c | 172.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 77c | 126.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 110.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 16c | 100.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 17c | 87.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 28c | 55.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27e…d69dbacked Yes | 68c | 54.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spotify report greater than 745 million monthly active users?this page
- Will Spotify report between 715 million and 725 million monthly active users?No won
- Will Spotify report between 725 million and 735 million monthly active users?No won
- Will Spotify report between 735 million and 745 million monthly active users?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.