Earnings · resolved market
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e5ed70ee3af291946031d8f84841989a6186b899d104e688fa0d77bb5bdd23a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 66c | 1,603$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.49 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 40c | 450$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…d10fbacked Yes | 58c | 395.19$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 65c | 314.51$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 299.26$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 24c | 295$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked No | 47c | 258$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…b16dbacked Yes | 62c | 220.32$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 35c | 218.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 79c | 203.75$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 34c | 182.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 141$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 112.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 80c | 101$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 20c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 79c | 91.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 66c | 88.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 74c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 39c | 74.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 39c | 69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 23c | 49.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 67c | 45.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…fb48backed No | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 55c | 36.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 28.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 58c | 22.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed Yes | 66c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.