Ukraine · resolved market
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a050d7a8985527f86981e9f4d0c2464c0edce3e8348f32081ba6f587e49f22e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x290d…dc40backed No | 76c | 677.27$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 55c | 254.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.07 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed Yes | 50c | 135.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 21c | 99.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c4…b0acbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed No | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 31.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…ad26backed No | 76c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?this page
- Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?Yes won
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 22?No won
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.