Ukraine · resolved market
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba684442e86171b7497714e17ba803d12c26fee033ff7a4983f8537588b6de0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed No | 13c | 3,927$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…ab0fbacked No | 3c | 3,894$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed No | 34c | 2,023$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.15 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa07f…52ecbacked No | 5c | 1,646$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…067cbacked No | 69c | 1,619$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 1,200$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.31 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed No | 16c | 1,128$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…b0d6backed No | 6c | 890.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 4c | 740.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 74c | 708.43$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.94 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 678$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.97 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 613.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 28c | 602.56$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.77 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 37c | 538.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 520.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 61c | 484.04$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 35c | 483.8$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.48 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked No | 3c | 436.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 21c | 394.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…d246backed No | 64c | 233.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…8e9bbacked No | 13c | 223$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…8afabacked Yes | 37c | 184.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 72c | 182.93$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…d936backed No | 9c | 175.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 53c | 174.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 172.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 64c | 155.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…c34dbacked Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked No | 74c | 134.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 30c | 128.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 118.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…31f7backed No | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 18c | 107.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccd…4b93backed No | 23c | 107.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26bc…6b72backed Yes | 30c | 100.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 45cpaid | +98%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8d…8cdcbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 93.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 57c | 93.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 11c | 91.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +5.9wins | +0.22per pick | 19cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cba…bcb0backed Yes | 56c | 89.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd94d…e6cfbacked Yes | 69c | 86.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…4db0backed Yes | 39c | 85.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…2688backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…07aebacked No | 36c | 82.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 48c | 69.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…c5bebacked No | 26c | 69.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…4da8backed No | 54c | 55.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 25c | 55.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…4d1fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…6e05backed Yes | 40c | 50.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…b282backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6eabbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5a2ebacked Yes | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +263.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 29c | 45.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 40c | 44.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…ad26backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 43c | 23.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 51c | 23.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 79c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…b413backed No | 62c | 20.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe342…ac61backed Yes | 80c | 16.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?this page
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 22?No won
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 25?No won
- Moscow air traffic suspended by July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.