Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc540eca708e82018ef510fb64117eed65c7a20491815a224cad2c8c222e1a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 58c | 930.24$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.62 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 45c | 612.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.6 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 39c | 445.41$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.94 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 35c | 418.57$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.94 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 66c | 389.85$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 28c | 375.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.58 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 39c | 335.91$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.89 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 57c | 331.15$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.54 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…51cbbacked Yes | 42c | 316$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 29c | 285.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.44 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 269.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 36c | 237.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.68 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 40c | 235$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.21 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 9c | 208.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 25c | 202.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.38 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 64c | 200.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 71c | 185.12$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 27c | 143.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.22 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 70c | 142.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 26c | 121.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 36c | 115.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…c93cbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 48c | 99.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 55c | 81.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…413ebacked Yes | 45c | 78.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…3951backed Yes | 48c | 63.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 40c | 50.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…c797backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…2b46backed No | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…ba22backed No | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 45.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 61c | 39.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…9ecbbacked Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c3…6937backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf66…5a2dbacked No | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb6…60c2backed Yes | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…f630backed No | 49c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…b44cbacked No | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5a…1e32backed Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8beb…355fbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…b9d7backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…bfc7backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0722…2983backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1a…9cd3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed No | 62c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cad…3079backed Yes | 73c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…21dbbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.