Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cec2123503b4100ced7f5c120a5f30166d56eb211f558017a90640e21832985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 1c | 25,547$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,991$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.82 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 63c | 885.56$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.86 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 42c | 848.57$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.21 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 35c | 770.29$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.77 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 57c | 346.31$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.27 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…09bcbacked No | 50c | 315$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 304.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…d759backed Yes | 50c | 282$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…8801backed Yes | 49c | 257$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 50c | 248.7$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…a380backed No | 51c | 216$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 54c | 214.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.78 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 36c | 214.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.15 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 50c | 198.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 50c | 185.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf664…0858backed Yes | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…6f68backed No | 48c | 158$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…1464backed Yes | 50c | 155$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 39c | 152.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 62c | 143.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…c675backed No | 50c | 142$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 59c | 135.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe669…544abacked Yes | 62c | 125.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…413ebacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…92dbbacked Yes | 49c | 106$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…baaebacked No | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked Yes | 54c | 92.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 87.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 57c | 84.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 74c | 81.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…e2f9backed No | 51c | 76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68b…8f10backed Yes | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…d92cbacked Yes | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…9ebdbacked No | 48c | 72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…8d58backed No | 51c | 71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 35c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…0131backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 50c | 41.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…e1d3backed Yes | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…1853backed Yes | 60c | 38.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Yes | 53c | 37.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…6ebfbacked Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6a…a7eebacked No | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074f…383cbacked Yes | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3113…8f8ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1232backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 49c | 29.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 77c | 29.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5412…95ebbacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…26ffbacked No | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…a1f5backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…05b4backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…6156backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec9…366dbacked No | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…396cbacked Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…633bbacked No | 51c | 20.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf8…ca46backed Yes | 58c | 20.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 64c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cad…3079backed Yes | 59c | 17.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…21dbbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…a24dbacked Yes | 80c | 14.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.