Us Midterms · resolved market
Zohran Mamdani arrested before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5580df4a0b136b0607c508a2ab55c822f6d5ab26ec6ebb5f8a843371659a731e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 3,602$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 3c | 2,424$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…d315backed Yes | 3c | 2,358$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 2,139$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 1,805$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…b532backed Yes | 5c | 1,721$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…46ecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,593$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc619…6a62backed Yes | 5c | 1,550$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…f78cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,473$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,095$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…101ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,089$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…a350backed Yes | 5c | 1,009$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 4c | 835.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…ce21backed Yes | 4c | 788.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 675.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8f…4b8abacked Yes | 3c | 630.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b18…910dbacked Yes | 4c | 626.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 609.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0b…95b7backed Yes | 4c | 517.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 496.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…eb00backed Yes | 5c | 492.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed Yes | 4c | 439.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…b3f1backed Yes | 5c | 432$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7508…0b82backed Yes | 3c | 342.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 315.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 4c | 270.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.