Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833e942aa9adcaca8794e55cb16f0e487155eefed24ddea618a1bd8ef6a1d002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,589$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.97 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 32c | 1,257$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.92 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed No | 64c | 900$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 20c | 685.78$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 23c | 683.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 29c | 577.07$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.87 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 4c | 530$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked No | 77c | 516.7$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 71c | 360.62$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…3951backed No | 78c | 268.87$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…53d2backed Yes | 30c | 252$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 8c | 249.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 6c | 242.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 75c | 223.88$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…8ae2backed Yes | 30c | 169$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 74c | 168.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 80c | 159.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 53c | 149.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…d803backed No | 74c | 142$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…825fbacked No | 65c | 141.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…f4c3backed No | 70c | 138$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 27c | 108.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 67c | 104.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…f126backed No | 70c | 101$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 61c | 98.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…2535backed Yes | 26c | 88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 77c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…200fbacked Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe230…30c7backed Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…d14abacked Yes | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…3bf7backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…9e42backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c66…ca2dbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280a…78cabacked No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed No | 50c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…79b6backed No | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…4621backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d8…926dbacked No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…1e59backed Yes | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a4…9151backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a76…1c13backed No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…95f9backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…1fbbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…93fabacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2395…c324backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad51…a3dabacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…1f7bbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed No | 74c | 22.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…3852backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…6687backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…abb1backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6b…c5a4backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…bdf1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1c…0362backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed No | 77c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.