Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ca912d2ae464de5866e530144c794bde4b86fc161eadf684a7e399af72c82e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,848$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.77 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 47c | 1,489$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.94 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 45c | 933.02$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 57c | 600$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 41c | 594.86$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.99 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 22c | 507.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.31 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 78c | 426.46$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 43c | 331.79$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.19 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 78c | 290.82$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 69c | 205.22$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.19 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 35c | 186.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.97 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…fc73backed No | 72c | 172$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 32c | 152.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 72c | 139.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…3c44backed Yes | 28c | 135$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…bb70backed Yes | 28c | 127$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +113%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…1f61backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed Yes | 25c | 117.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 21c | 110$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 77c | 103.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 28c | 102.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…e414backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d09…6a5ebacked Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bec…b6bbbacked Yes | 16c | 71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…5f96backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…7bb0backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…9976backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…a82dbacked No | 56c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…6e2dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…ff20backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748d…fe94backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa751…2d34backed No | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…2a15backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…81ffbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 33c | 39.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed No | 61c | 28.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e95…d900backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32f…3916backed Yes | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30d…eb94backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 50c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d5…ec9abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…7005backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6299…1005backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…6c0ebacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe751…68d5backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac3…3542backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…bf52backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b2…019ebacked Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…951cbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…8fc3backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2e…bd9dbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.