Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97f319059fa784eddcba724913a779211694a5124752c85fb602e7b3276d6f17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec84…cb9ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b7…1d81backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…4f82backed Yes | 10c | 206$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 189.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 161.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…9f0fbacked Yes | 37c | 158$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…18fbbacked Yes | 34c | 109$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5b…7f54backed No | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…a9cebacked No | 66c | 103$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 23c | 51.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…fc72backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…a24fbacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bb…5d4bbacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…536dbacked Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…3777backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…77a2backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dac…d285backed No | 79c | 22.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5507…6f57backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…b138backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on February 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.