Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402dc67f2af57d890a61671ede4d077f80518f34516daf1a73c38e850b0c2e1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1717…e2adbacked No | 0c | 10,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137c…b9ffbacked No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…206abacked No | 6c | 4,934$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,214$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 2,168$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 2c | 1,568$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…ba96backed No | 6c | 1,562$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 2c | 1,354$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 3c | 1,250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…1b27backed No | 7c | 581.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…56d4backed No | 18c | 558.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 64c | 467.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.25 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 76c | 406.28$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked No | 5c | 365.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20bc…e306backed No | 4c | 303.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 36c | 285.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed Yes | 55c | 283.58$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…107abacked No | 44c | 281.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e5c0backed No | 31c | 250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 234.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 52c | 220.93$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e1…d8dabacked No | 9c | 212.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 48c | 199.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 34c | 165$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…281bbacked No | 20c | 161.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 6c | 159.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 35c | 156.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 16c | 150.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…9d5cbacked Yes | 65c | 104.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…cbf9backed No | 40c | 100.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaf…8981backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…66a2backed No | 34c | 95.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 85.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…2d6abacked Yes | 72c | 69.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e0…a12fbacked No | 31c | 61.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 56c | 59.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…e540backed Yes | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 71c | 49.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21d…65eabacked Yes | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…b3c6backed No | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 71c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 24, 2026?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.