Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4345d560f9cb7ee82011ac2a39fd93f93113f8da745251cfb708886129917138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 849$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 79c | 629.8$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 79c | 427.13$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 42c | 403.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.39 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 26c | 283.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…107abacked No | 29c | 276.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 7c | 171.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 59c | 168.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 156.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 133.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…08bcbacked Yes | 57c | 87.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…2d66backed Yes | 70c | 85.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…60acbacked Yes | 69c | 34.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8906…7b41backed Yes | 70c | 32.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…13b9backed Yes | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 31, 2026?this page
- Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 24, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.