Us Politics · resolved market
Will fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf93c2cb39ae91f4d46ce09b9db68e2e446bf75c896e071ff90e83d16ed9bf182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,463$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 24c | 824.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 6c | 816.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 53c | 707.43$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.27 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 43c | 631.72$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 514.14$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…c8cfbacked Yes | 25c | 420.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 33c | 419.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 56c | 400.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.34 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 198.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 66c | 186.04$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 46c | 182$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 62c | 139.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 136.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 66c | 100.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d6…aa46backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 14c | 84.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 51c | 81.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…52cbbacked Yes | 20c | 78.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…798fbacked Yes | 38c | 53.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 34c | 39.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…16adbacked No | 66c | 37.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 71c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?this page
- Will 61 or more U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will exactly 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will exactly 57 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will exactly 58 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.