Us Politics · resolved market
Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a457d7db2cad0397af042b92ce4a84c83e8f58d2165bd5600bd49a53f48d037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 68c | 10,885$7,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 9c | 4,513$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,110.25 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 61c | 4,475$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.54 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 4,194$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.59 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed Yes | 51c | 1,804$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.7 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 2c | 1,572$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 892.24$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.64 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…1e8dbacked Yes | 77c | 741.31$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 11c | 712.1$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.81 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 58c | 576.05$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.36 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 15c | 571.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 2c | 569.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.7 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 39c | 423.46$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.08 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 49c | 409.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 3c | 404.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.39 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 379.24$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 44c | 349.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 79c | 233$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.49 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 63c | 216$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…a42bbacked Yes | 51c | 203.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…9108backed Yes | 60c | 167.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 39c | 151.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 142$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked Yes | 57c | 104$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d6…aa46backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 86.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 47c | 81.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 56c | 72.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 54c | 71.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…3713backed No | 49c | 60.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 78c | 47.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…8ad5backed No | 48c | 38.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed No | 53c | 35.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…94b7backed Yes | 73c | 30.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by October 31?this page
- Will 61 or more U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will exactly 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will exactly 57 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will exactly 58 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
- Will fewer than 55 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.