Fifa International · resolved market
Will Vinicius Jr. score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2890fca0ba7cb70f437eed4acbfa2dbc7575163aab5f897e8bff6bf9e2d6f4e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 78c | 1,000$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.1 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes | 63c | 645.53$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.68 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…b8f1backed No | 37c | 640.54$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 30cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed Yes | 62c | 600$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 4c | 536.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 25c | 506.38$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.18 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.99 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 51c | 395.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 34c | 348.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 44c | 342.71$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.33 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 18c | 244$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 13c | 235.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 22c | 224.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 69c | 211.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Yes | 22c | 167.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 75c | 121.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e9…7a9fbacked Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 37c | 118.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b0…acdebacked Yes | 22c | 106.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…b7aabacked No | 37c | 71.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f8…81bdbacked Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…aa11backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…793cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 72cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.