Fifa International · resolved market
Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c09287153ada933cdf04b39dce4c61ba2571b225a5ae4d5c74f571bca196f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,087$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.51 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 159 | 42.1%67 W · 92 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1a…7a49backed Yes | 46c | 144.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 56c | 132.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 138 | 55.1%76 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 105.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 550 | 44.7%246 W · 304 L | -27.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 236 | 40.3%95 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 33c | 91.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4b…83e2backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 35c | 58.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 56c | 48.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 54c | 34.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…10d8backed No | 56c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -9.0wins | -0.25per pick | 64cpaid | -35%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Vinicius Jr. score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.