TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c9e…b20abacked Yes79c608.89$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed No29c452.49$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.134437.2%128 W · 216 L+22.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcf7…6403backed No23c434.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-83.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes72c300.39$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3515564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4667442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4476137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes56c199.24$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes53c190.81$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.547138.6%182 W · 289 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No18c188.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348516.5%14 W · 71 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes71c162.6$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1520742%87 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d59…f7e5backed No41c109.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.817064.1%109 W · 61 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291883.3%15 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa68…ba5dbacked No28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2814860.1%89 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes73c75.54$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3426350.2%132 W · 131 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No36c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.38035%28 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-41.8%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x08f8…0e43backed No41c61.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d2e…2581backed No25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…5db6backed Yes77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.83560%21 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No22c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.157939%226 W · 353 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae2…34d9backed Yes72c52.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.78977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes65c51.27$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9414233.8%48 W · 94 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc6…1a49backed No21c51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.55474.1%40 W · 14 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes59c34.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2813432.8%44 W · 90 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ea…7b04backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.