Earnings · resolved market
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe6f10dca602f8a71893486557fb9401303742f51ac4e12eaab55b3fb1bc2a30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 24c | 4,207$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.48 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 73c | 4,169$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.76 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 18c | 2,997$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.82 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 75c | 2,344$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.79 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…b6b4backed No | 11c | 1,968$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 18c | 1,171$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.55 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked No | 27c | 1,051$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.51 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 22c | 634.16$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 21c | 506.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…e094backed No | 9c | 505.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 77c | 455.04$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 26c | 438.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.94 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 404.6$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 402$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 25c | 389$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 22c | 375.74$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 25c | 363.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 17c | 266$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 20c | 265.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 77c | 254$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 30c | 247.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 16c | 230.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 26c | 199$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed No | 25c | 175.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 61c | 145$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…f93abacked No | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 14c | 109.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 80c | 107$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…df3ebacked No | 39c | 91.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 80c | 90.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 28c | 86.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 85.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 23c | 84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 22c | 78.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 24c | 68.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539b…c64fbacked No | 45c | 68.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…2c07backed Yes | 75c | 66.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 30c | 56.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 79c | 50.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…5b5fbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd3…f2f9backed No | 42c | 47.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8f…d9eebacked No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…4348backed Yes | 75c | 30.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…e714backed No | 44c | 23.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 80c | 23.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 48c | 22.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…4ae5backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ab…4a44backed Yes | 79c | 17.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.