Will FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4faede757e811e5e0fc1a79467377034de373e393a7ed3feac97b34a05fb1e6f

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,879 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf519…906bbacked Yes	13c	10,000$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	149	53%79 W · 70 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	13c	10,000$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,299.99	62	21%13 W · 49 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes	14c	4,110$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.57	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	77c	3,038$2,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$689.82	1,543	40.1%618 W · 925 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed Yes	14c	2,750$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed No	68c	2,740$1,854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.27	204	62.3%127 W · 77 L	+19.1wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No	72c	2,288$1,640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$647.99	343	42.3%145 W · 198 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes	15c	1,796$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.46	375	44%165 W · 210 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	77c	1,610$1,241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368.59	2,025	43.7%884 W · 1,141 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Yes	14c	1,429$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Yes	16c	1,228$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes	34c	1,226$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.82	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb726…4d2bbacked Yes	36c	1,213$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.57	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.30per pick	43cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Yes	22c	1,128$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.21	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-9.9wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-60%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x10d0…7b84backed Yes	36c	1,106$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb518…ec0bbacked Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes	10c	962.22$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.12	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	+6.0wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	+158%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	14c	857.14$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes	18c	855$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.77	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd40b…429abacked Yes	23c	774$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No	64c	765.32$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.63	203	43.3%88 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes	13c	600$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	174	26.4%46 W · 128 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f3d…07d5backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes	16c	489.2$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.46	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	14c	484.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb392…28a5backed Yes	3c	464.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+176.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9c1…610abacked Yes	23c	434.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4537…491dbacked Yes	35c	428.57$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes	11c	422.22$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No	72c	374.03$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.21	358	60.6%217 W · 141 L	+21.4wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes	13c	356$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.28	434	27.4%119 W · 315 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No	73c	307.03$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.38	460	48.5%223 W · 237 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes	35c	284.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No	77c	281.01$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.63	53	34%18 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0d…7435backed Yes	14c	235.71$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x040d…3527backed Yes	21c	232.86$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.08	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No	73c	229.42$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	217	45.6%99 W · 118 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1edcbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x929c…e816backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	100	39%39 W · 61 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68e…663cbacked Yes	35c	204$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.4	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+17%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd922…8d25backed Yes	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b55…be47backed Yes	19c	164.5$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes	14c	157.14$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	82	29.3%24 W · 58 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes	13c	154$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	291	34.4%100 W · 191 L	+15.8wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c44…a1aabacked Yes	14c	147.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked Yes	34c	147.06$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	95	53.7%51 W · 44 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed No	74c	147$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.73	217	60.8%132 W · 85 L	+21.9wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Yes	35c	142.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	46.4%58 W · 67 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes	12c	142.11$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	243	27.2%66 W · 177 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Yes	14c	137$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.18	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76da…30a2backed No	78c	128.21$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.21	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No	77c	126.25$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.19	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb88…2a30backed Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c7…e539backed Yes	36c	111.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Yes	11c	109.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-40%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked No	68c	108.9$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.79	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Yes	13c	107.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x201c…3418backed Yes	26c	106.44$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa09a…5cb8backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34b0…94d1backed Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd306…4320backed Yes	12c	99.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	57	24.6%14 W · 43 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	18c	81.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+8.6wins	+0.25per pick	33cpaid	+62%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xbf84…a7b5backed Yes	14c	80.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No	62c	80$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	209	47.8%100 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8525…bdbabacked Yes	22c	71$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x247a…608cbacked Yes	34c	61.76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a5…2d56backed Yes	34c	60$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x530d…9b59backed Yes	34c	59.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.12	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x286e…7d04backed Yes	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+143.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce0a…2d88backed Yes	34c	52.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-3.7wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0052…4d9ebacked Yes	42c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	58	72.4%42 W · 16 L	+10.9wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+39%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa695…c8a4backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc8…58e2backed Yes	35c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3875…ea76backed Yes	36c	41.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x981d…0741backed Yes	27c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	31cpaid	-80%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No	79c	35.01$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.3	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc553…b054backed No	79c	33.99$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6da8…d660backed No	74c	33.75$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.92	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	62c	28$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	291	42.3%123 W · 168 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No	69c	27.7$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.71	80	27.5%22 W · 58 L	-9.8wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-50%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked No	72c	21.45$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.09	52	40.4%21 W · 31 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcad…0a68backed No	72c	21.4$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.09	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed No	69c	21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.51	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No	78c	14.65$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.22	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?this page
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-09?Yes won
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-12-09?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will FC Bayern München vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event