Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155b02e8682e4016a89028190c836b305ed0a8cd7704bf9005a41c15c47ac08c

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $104,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,047 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	11c	6,225$678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$678.17	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	+9.9wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95e5…0920backed Yes	14c	6,180$867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$866.97	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+272.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	4,305$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.11	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes	8c	2,931$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.35	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+70.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	96	13.5%13 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes	4c	1,625$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.05	196	23%45 W · 151 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes	19c	1,500$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.5	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes	17c	1,423$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.89	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No	80c	1,350$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	5c	1,197$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.03	482	24.7%119 W · 363 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07df…ac1abacked Yes	19c	1,186$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79eb…f471backed Yes	10c	1,093$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	10c	1,065$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.5	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes	13c	1,055$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.88	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	+11.0wins	+0.18per pick	31cpaid	+90%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	20c	1,000$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+43.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe87f…6931backed Yes	15c	814.78$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	11cpaid	+942.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77cf…2d5fbacked Yes	8c	777.21$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-77.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes	10c	749.99$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	50	44%22 W · 28 L	+5.6wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+223.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74af…8988backed Yes	14c	725$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.5	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+406%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0960…455dbacked Yes	13c	638.85$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	11c	611.53$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.13	98	22.4%22 W · 76 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	10c	544.25$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8822…a5e2backed Yes	17c	474.55$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1f…7d0fbacked Yes	22c	460.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+64.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed Yes	9c	460$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.22	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes	21c	437.34$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.62	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+65.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	11c	418$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.58	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe23…c1dcbacked Yes	15c	411.55$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	20cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf57d…d8efbacked Yes	6c	379.68$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+82%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes	20c	350$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	14c	324.88$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.64	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	8c	282$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	103	44.7%46 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x701c…e096backed Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes	16c	250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes	19c	247.51$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.03	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	240.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	16c	236.44$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.86	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa5…c8a1backed Yes	23c	222.02$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.42	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4055…7858backed Yes	26c	211.01$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc7…c424backed Yes	24c	210$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.37	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7870…0d10backed Yes	25c	201.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked Yes	12c	200$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca71…ca25backed Yes	28c	178.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc296…5db4backed Yes	27c	150.14$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	200	34%68 W · 132 L	+9.0wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6226…76f9backed Yes	11c	136.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc1…0338backed Yes	17c	136.25$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Yes	11c	120$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3316…1bc4backed Yes	17c	118.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79b…c37cbacked Yes	15c	105.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd150…ed7abacked Yes	19c	103.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes	14c	98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	77	40.3%31 W · 46 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked No	78c	90$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.71	169	40.2%68 W · 101 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33f7…7a46backed Yes	14c	90$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x715b…215ebacked Yes	12c	82.14$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+53.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ebf…898dbacked Yes	25c	79.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4a8…74bdbacked Yes	26c	76.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	16c	67.84$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	347	26.8%93 W · 254 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	16c	67.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	476	6.5%31 W · 445 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5207…a8cebacked Yes	24c	56.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed No	78c	55.3$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.44	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No	78c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.09	59	35.6%21 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ad…b1bbbacked No	76c	32$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.74	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+70%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event