World Politics · resolved market
Will the JA21 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff3cfb75abffc6bd9e2a449d747e055ebe0575511686207a7b0b906aa4107679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79eb…f471backed Yes | 3c | 4,208$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,178$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 3,596$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,434$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 1c | 2,820$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…6944backed Yes | 3c | 1,844$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,760$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf172…3226backed Yes | 7c | 1,750$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…044abacked Yes | 7c | 707.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…3df6backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…e096backed Yes | 6c | 423.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b3…a9e2backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09c…aed0backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 322.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…f25abacked Yes | 8c | 263.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 6c | 188.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 7c | 151.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the JA21 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will Party for Freedom win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Christian Union win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Forum for Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the New Social Contract win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the Reformed Political Party win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Volt Netherlands win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.