World Politics · resolved market
Will Party for Freedom win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b91f7ed69ccb04ef2fc8809a13be0dea2d9caffae1526d055694af1c56c8f61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 7c | 15,842$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.25 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,035$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 16c | 4,878$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.09 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…f102backed Yes | 7c | 3,915$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 3,880$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.91 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…a8d5backed Yes | 7c | 2,421$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.42 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 8c | 2,288$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…3df4backed Yes | 2c | 2,150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 6c | 1,760$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 1,526$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,313$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 1,185$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 9c | 1,164$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 135 | 8.1%11 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,065$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 899.86$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.26 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…a7a9backed Yes | 3c | 882.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 803.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b5…c668backed Yes | 3c | 704.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 10c | 599.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a1…1614backed Yes | 17c | 412.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 4c | 354.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73a…542cbacked Yes | 5c | 348.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 4c | 260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…9580backed Yes | 17c | 250$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…f78dbacked Yes | 8c | 240.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 4c | 225$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…fa33backed Yes | 13c | 184$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…e096backed Yes | 14c | 178.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…689bbacked Yes | 17c | 177.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…f50ebacked Yes | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d2…31a4backed Yes | 16c | 116.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ab…a766backed Yes | 20c | 100.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -82%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f7…7a46backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cde…d60bbacked Yes | 21c | 93.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…5c70backed Yes | 22c | 90.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes | 13c | 86.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Party for Freedom win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?this page
- Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Christian Union win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Democrats 66 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Forum for Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the JA21 win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the New Social Contract win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the Reformed Political Party win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Volt Netherlands win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.