TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,448

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes54c15,028$8,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,061.871421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-48.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc708…70abbacked Yes18c7,982$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.23520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes4c6,281$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.493540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8733…a6f0backed Yes5c5,653$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.6933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes13c4,037$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.438932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c3,586$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.061,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes34c1,972$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.141631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No39c1,683$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.1119027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e63…d208backed Yes18c1,594$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes11c1,520$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.916883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No65c1,285$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.229822.4%22 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b97…5a5ebacked Yes2c1,176$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick11cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes17c1,126$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.533234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe66a…adb0backed Yes11c1,112$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.91714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No51c1,111$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.3943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes38c1,078$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.353941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda95…e997backed Yes9c1,075$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95df…8a52backed Yes2c1,026$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.32540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes31c1,000$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.832040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes32c999.95$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.983537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes50c934$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.889627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c4f…5e76backed Yes11c895.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-51.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf72e…68e2backed Yes24c878.6$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes2c875.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.472015%3 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dee…9580backed Yes35c850$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.351216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes14c600$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.751717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick8cpaid+149.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb84…e3d1backed Yes26c593.58$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.41428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes9c560.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7811428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c20…9e4fbacked Yes3c550$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.191428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+234.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes39c546.88$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8588448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c509.15$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.241,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes3c502.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.391513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402814.3%4 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-69.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2f7b…3f03backed Yes40c494.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-72.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes24c490$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8416940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes37c489$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.027631.6%24 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No65c457.92$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.484161%25 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec22…6ea0backed Yes13c425.79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a6…8297backed Yes26c404$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.292128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes29c388.71$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.539345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0804…35a2backed Yes7c387.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f7…ba70backed Yes25c371.41$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No56c370.83$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2620034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No19c366.87$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.177335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c305.38$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.071,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes5c304.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6416612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.210741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes34c297.83$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.269631.3%30 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes31c296.21$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.133826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes19c277.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.014531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x364e…f7fabacked Yes37c260$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x074b…e2ecbacked Yes19c257.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No66c251.2$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.474168.3%28 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No46c249.95$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9711039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes27c247.53$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.366755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed Yes8c245$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.763633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Yes10c241.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.872313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3176…8d71backed Yes20c235.91$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+104.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No64c233$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.745072%36 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+26.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5895…cd87backed Yes34c230.72$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No67c229.38$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.164555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…2925backed Yes12c227.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae89…12dcbacked Yes27c221.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes28c214.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed Yes23c213.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.011216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+309.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90a…06b7backed Yes33c211.02$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.71346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No61c203.6$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.26633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec66…f0adbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-80.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.584641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No74c199.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5245723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd93f…72d1backed No62c186.16$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes34c177.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3331534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes23c176.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.11540%0 W · 54 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…e5ecbacked Yes25c171.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0960…455dbacked Yes41c170.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes12c170$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No59c169$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.984955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c34…bcb3backed Yes40c141.01$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x709f…635abacked Yes8c139.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-65.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes23c134.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9534726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6030…5d87backed Yes38c134.26$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa84…f25abacked Yes30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+72.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…05f5backed Yes38c130$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-78.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cc7…c424backed Yes31c129.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes20c125.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0b…8299backed Yes27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ebf…84cabacked Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+85.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes21c117.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3644921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x355d…ace2backed Yes18c113.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No78c108.83$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.176149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-79.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284327.9%12 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3303…9266backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No74c92.69$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.110344.7%46 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x33f7…7a46backed Yes35c90$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes31c80$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.611738.5%45 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes20c79.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.019248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.