TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06dc…af59backed Yes38c10,793$4,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,745.229345.2%42 W · 51 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+22.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes4c9,148$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,786.3119027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No5c7,059$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.943540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked No12c5,582$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.818932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes65c4,715$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.322240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+65.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No10c4,524$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.596883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes80c4,453$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.331631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…e8cfbacked Yes62c3,159$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.17757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes22c2,879$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.996149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes25c2,851$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,151.125446.3%25 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Yes9c1,931$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.782313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes53c1,889$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.6331534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,654$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.731,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No18c1,104$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.827225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No5c1,037$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5116612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked Yes73c1,000$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c945.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.353116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes2c853.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.149822.4%22 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No24c846$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.667335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No15c838.93$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes23c689.26$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.263941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes75c653.23$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.318632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae64…aca9backed Yes10c648.05$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.05825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes74c599.99$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.85955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7b…cdbebacked Yes28c588.87$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes9c555.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.221612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes5c524.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.664814.6%7 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes8c500$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes7c500$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.55044%22 W · 28 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0065…02f3backed Yes7c500$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick45cpaid+272.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes22c477.94$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.522450%12 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No5c451.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.551,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes66c446.02$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.486633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No18c444.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8819623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe852…3fe6backed Yes12c409.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.29450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+154%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes43c400$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.435935.6%21 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c20…9e4fbacked No6c351.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.321428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+234.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0960…455dbacked Yes11c306.93$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.391827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x701c…e096backed Yes8c303.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.731520%3 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+54.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb96c…6cc6backed No23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+309.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes10c300$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes80c299.99$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes7c299.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.9920325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes11c272.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.911827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed No16c259$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3540%0 W · 54 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9ff5backed Yes8c250$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes10c250$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.57833.3%26 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c238$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0956314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x40f9…2200backed Yes34c227.43$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.18633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes78c213.12$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7911741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa84…f25abacked Yes10c207.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.06616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+72.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x668d…f8bbbacked Yes80c206.53$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No7c206.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.211428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff8…2468backed Yes49c202.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5823225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes73c190.86$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9814027.9%39 W · 101 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No9c183.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5723921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffad…e37cbacked No27c182.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-59.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ab…402cbacked Yes14c139.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.13728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc0…6d37backed Yes80c117.18$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes14c113.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.774766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc4…d451backed Yes12c111.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.86425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+105.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac0c…739cbacked No23c106.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3b…a1c1backed Yes13c105.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick9cpaid+500%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25dd…1a7bbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7220034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee6b…8486backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed No20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.862528%7 W · 18 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-57.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x157b…87dcbacked Yes79c57.95$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.881752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes73c54.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25e…c9c6backed Yes77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes31c46.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.934726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes78c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.439248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7249…b515backed Yes80c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No27c38.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6131443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf301…dd70backed Yes77c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.01560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…4426backed Yes77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec44…d96cbacked Yes78c25.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x859d…e5c6backed Yes78c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.