Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91eaa70627fac9ceda5a7200225c51e4f3e60f85788f4a4e01a2701d695e4dff

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 2, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,126 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes	45c	11,683$5,261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,261.05	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	38cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,064$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.32	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x863a…f88fbacked Yes	4c	2,497$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.94	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No	68c	2,420$1,657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$762.41	93	45.2%42 W · 51 L	+9.9wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x709f…635abacked Yes	3c	1,663$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes	29c	1,263$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.14	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+24%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed Yes	25c	1,247$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.99	78	28.2%22 W · 56 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes	41c	1,114$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.81	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed No	76c	1,017$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.56	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+5.9wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	25c	1,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+43.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No	66c	903.56$596 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.21	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	+11.0wins	+0.18per pick	31cpaid	+90%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No	70c	895.19$630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.97	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes	22c	810$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.2	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed Yes	32c	623.25$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.44	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	34c	528$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.05	192	37.5%72 W · 120 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No	69c	516$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.51	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes	22c	500$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc774…b6e8backed Yes	22c	499.99$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes	50c	499.64$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.02	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-7.2wins	-0.26per pick	40cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x9010…32a0backed Yes	30c	489.98$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.69	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes	40c	387.21$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.4	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Yes	37c	379.84$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	57cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No	66c	371.03$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.64	41	68.3%28 W · 13 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	56cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb84…e3d1backed Yes	21c	370.95$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.9	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	27c	361.95$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.1	190	27.9%53 W · 137 L	+14.5wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+53%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	29c	359.62$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.82	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed No	68c	348.47$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.51	88	54.5%48 W · 40 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3a6…8297backed Yes	34c	347$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.13	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	33c	331.99$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.32	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ab…402cbacked Yes	38c	312.33$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No	65c	310.62$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.72	50	72%36 W · 14 L	+6.9wins	+0.14per pick	58cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes	17c	301.63$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	56	30.4%17 W · 39 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	28c	301.05$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.29	103	44.7%46 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	38c	297$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.79	76	31.6%24 W · 52 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-27%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes	25c	294.92$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.85	133	43.6%58 W · 75 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…f25abacked Yes	27c	262.51$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+72.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ec…28f9backed Yes	44c	260.16$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.47	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6030…5d87backed Yes	45c	238.02$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.18	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	21c	222$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.62	482	24.7%119 W · 363 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec66…f0adbacked Yes	42c	200.71$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No	65c	200$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.52	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes	38c	186.7$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.23	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0960…455dbacked Yes	44c	180.65$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…05f5backed Yes	45c	178.34$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	45cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90a…06b7backed Yes	31c	176.62$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.33	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0371…b743backed Yes	34c	176.1$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.59	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc7…c424backed Yes	31c	159.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3672…530fbacked Yes	52c	153.85$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ee…9128backed Yes	33c	153$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.49	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	53cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70c9…c01ebacked Yes	37c	149.35$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	26c	131.2$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.11	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbabe…28d8backed Yes	43c	128.19$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes	20c	126$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No	57c	125$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.75	98	22.4%22 W · 76 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d92…3a3ebacked Yes	28c	117.3$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc296…5db4backed Yes	37c	107.15$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	27c	106.79$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.49	371	17.8%66 W · 305 L	-18.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed No	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	50	44%22 W · 28 L	+5.6wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+223.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.92	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	15c	90$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	367	42.5%156 W · 211 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f7…7a46backed Yes	18c	90$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No	71c	82.98$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.06	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8c…82bebacked No	68c	81.76$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.16	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+165.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No	69c	77.7$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.39	51	74.5%38 W · 13 L	+6.8wins	+0.13per pick	61cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	14c	76.96$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	347	26.8%93 W · 254 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5921…3e13backed Yes	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	40cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dbb…4420backed Yes	28c	71.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…e242backed No	73c	70$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c48…995ebacked No	67c	62.6$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.66	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…54d6backed Yes	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes	52c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	57	29.8%17 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5207…a8cebacked Yes	36c	55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	35c	50.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-7.0wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04ed…b018backed Yes	42c	50$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	73c	47.41$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.87	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b06…b091backed Yes	50c	41.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes	28c	37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	77	40.3%31 W · 46 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	29c	36.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes	35c	33.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	99	42.4%42 W · 57 L	-11.0wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x790e…5091backed No	70c	31.57$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.47	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	67cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	34c	31.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	449	21.2%95 W · 354 L	-21.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5376…6e08backed No	66c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf57d…d8efbacked No	61c	24.59$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+82%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10f8…0361backed No	65c	19.12$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.69	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+81.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcca…5cc5backed No	65c	18.63$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.52	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+2.1wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+129.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked No	73c	18.6$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.02	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No	63c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.66	53	58.5%31 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	78c	17.85$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.91	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event