TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RU Saint-Gilloiseof FC Bayern München, RU Saint-Gilloise
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed RU Saint-Gilloise53c26,960$14,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,712.0758248.8%284 W · 298 L+2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed FC Bayern München51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.976048.3%29 W · 31 L+10.6wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+68.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed RU Saint-Gilloise59c18,653$10,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,667.991,99443.9%875 W · 1,119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed FC Bayern München52c11,008$5,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.261338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed FC Bayern München45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5003935.9%14 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked FC Bayern München51c9,804$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked RU Saint-Gilloise48c9,578$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,942.9513151.1%67 W · 64 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked RU Saint-Gilloise49c9,523$4,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,856.7117853.9%96 W · 82 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed RU Saint-Gilloise49c6,087$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,104.251546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc198…6d2cbacked FC Bayern München51c4,584$2,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3583138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43a4…7170backed RU Saint-Gilloise51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked FC Bayern München50c3,905$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.684450%22 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed FC Bayern München50c3,868$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93438043.9%167 W · 213 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked RU Saint-Gilloise49c3,402$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.3233851.5%174 W · 164 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe706…89bcbacked FC Bayern München21c2,486$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5223423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-49.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed FC Bayern München52c2,423$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed RU Saint-Gilloise49c2,360$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.9739746.9%186 W · 211 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked FC Bayern München52c2,313$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.352544%11 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e92…c03fbacked FC Bayern München52c2,019$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed RU Saint-Gilloise49c1,949$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.981656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked RU Saint-Gilloise48c1,692$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.672060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed RU Saint-Gilloise48c1,566$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.577946.8%37 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed FC Bayern München52c1,463$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.532623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked FC Bayern München23c1,450$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.31580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed FC Bayern München51c1,255$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6403345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked FC Bayern München50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed FC Bayern München51c1,200$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61250%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed RU Saint-Gilloise48c1,070$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.581643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd550…9228backed RU Saint-Gilloise49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked FC Bayern München34c1,000$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34221938.4%84 W · 135 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed FC Bayern München51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5106734.3%23 W · 44 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed FC Bayern München52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010543.8%46 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed FC Bayern München51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010149.5%50 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed RU Saint-Gilloise51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3915252%79 W · 73 L-11.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed FC Bayern München35c967$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.215322.6%12 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid+34.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Bayern München47c876.92$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.741,51140.2%608 W · 903 L-6.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked FC Bayern München49c800$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39214447.2%68 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked FC Bayern München50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed RU Saint-Gilloise47c617$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.0124047.1%113 W · 127 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadcd…29e9backed FC Bayern München50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked RU Saint-Gilloise50c599.97$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.189445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked RU Saint-Gilloise50c599.89$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.143946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FC Bayern München57c560.05$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.4946048.5%223 W · 237 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…3fb0backed FC Bayern München54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+86.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked RU Saint-Gilloise48c539$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.2816144.1%71 W · 90 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed FC Bayern München52c502.9$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603823.7%9 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-43%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed RU Saint-Gilloise49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2557435.1%26 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed RU Saint-Gilloise50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506428.1%18 W · 46 L-8.7wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked FC Bayern München51c479.16$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.252740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1df…16c1backed RU Saint-Gilloise51c431.37$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.371844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ca…5ed4backed FC Bayern München52c423.08$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2204542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc568…ecb7backed FC Bayern München50c413$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2386…1a2dbacked FC Bayern München8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321020%2 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-49.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed FC Bayern München50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004573.3%33 W · 12 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked RU Saint-Gilloise50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004568.9%31 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12cf…4e07backed RU Saint-Gilloise50c400$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52c3…ef21backed RU Saint-Gilloise50c394$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked FC Bayern München51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005416.7%9 W · 45 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed FC Bayern München52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010566.7%70 W · 35 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed RU Saint-Gilloise46c380.4$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4223947.7%114 W · 125 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee4…8c98backed FC Bayern München54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007343.8%32 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x398f…957bbacked RU Saint-Gilloise50c370$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7826…20b1backed FC Bayern München52c353.83$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.994641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66c6…5ae8backed RU Saint-Gilloise50c342$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed FC Bayern München49c330$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.717251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed RU Saint-Gilloise48c330$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.617855.6%99 W · 79 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4536…c33fbacked RU Saint-Gilloise50c326$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed RU Saint-Gilloise48c312.08$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.285248.1%25 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc664…8ca9backed RU Saint-Gilloise50c311.98$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked FC Bayern München49c299.95$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.983243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed FC Bayern München49c280$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.213453.7%72 W · 62 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed RU Saint-Gilloise48c273$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.6115938.4%61 W · 98 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…0126backed RU Saint-Gilloise79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.16757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9932…f309backed FC Bayern München52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb0b…a307backed FC Bayern München50c250$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed FC Bayern München49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.546956.5%265 W · 204 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177c…bcd1backed FC Bayern München29c246.14$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed FC Bayern München52c240$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.81560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed FC Bayern München50c204$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked RU Saint-Gilloise48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1048454.8%46 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f0…890dbacked FC Bayern München50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009150.5%46 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6561…c074backed FC Bayern München50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick36cpaid+9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff23…2b05backed RU Saint-Gilloise50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München37c200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733237.5%12 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2623…e65abacked FC Bayern München50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002015%3 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-69.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked RU Saint-Gilloise49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1029843.9%43 W · 55 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+28.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf091…d33bbacked FC Bayern München51c199$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked RU Saint-Gilloise51c198.03$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.031145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d96…b435backed RU Saint-Gilloise49c197.99$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77da…d3bdbacked RU Saint-Gilloise50c197$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+2,189.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b6b…a33ebacked FC Bayern München50c197$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb725…ca02backed FC Bayern München53c197$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed RU Saint-Gilloise51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.084717%8 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x219a…dc24backed RU Saint-Gilloise50c196$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8c…fb3abacked FC Bayern München51c196$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0919…b970backed FC Bayern München53c195$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc88…e4ddbacked FC Bayern München51c193$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…80e2backed FC Bayern München51c193$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed FC Bayern München52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006163.9%39 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed FC Bayern München52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+118.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.