Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ea20241be7a9bd20668563386a4d53dbd3ad5b05d16d5ac5264ebdbdeb3b0a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8067…5cc2backed Yes | 0c | 60,755$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 7c | 10,245$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.1 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 5,060$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…21eabacked Yes | 6c | 4,392$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 6c | 4,203$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 4c | 3,929$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.02 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 3c | 3,248$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…21debacked Yes | 1c | 3,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,917$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7456…327ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,282$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,141$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 6c | 2,037$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 16c | 1,928$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 3c | 1,660$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Yes | 3c | 1,466$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece1…2b04backed Yes | 7c | 1,464$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 3c | 996.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 10c | 972.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c40…09a6backed Yes | 5c | 906.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 7c | 832.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 815.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 7c | 718.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 8c | 596.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 9c | 560.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 5c | 560.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 7c | 540$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…b9dcbacked Yes | 9c | 527.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc27b…a28fbacked Yes | 8c | 517.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…4feabacked Yes | 7c | 503.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…5440backed Yes | 9c | 460.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…64f8backed Yes | 15c | 434.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +171.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c1…8975backed Yes | 8c | 434.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…518dbacked Yes | 3c | 429.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…2cffbacked Yes | 7c | 412.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…82f9backed Yes | 9c | 351.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fe9dbacked Yes | 4c | 339.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…803bbacked Yes | 7c | 336.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…d148backed Yes | 4c | 331$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143f…1ad2backed Yes | 10c | 313.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb014…1f4dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…560abacked Yes | 7c | 288.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…c2e0backed Yes | 7c | 267.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…45c9backed Yes | 8c | 247.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…95e1backed Yes | 8c | 243.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 7c | 231.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…bad1backed Yes | 9c | 211.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8291…eb49backed Yes | 7c | 210.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 7c | 190.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed Yes | 9c | 147.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…baa3backed Yes | 8c | 125.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…0cb3backed Yes | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 11c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 20c | 88.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…44f6backed Yes | 17c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…e937backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.