World Politics · resolved market
Yoon out of custody by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0fce791514e08970ae1ae6c88b4fc295606be2cd6d51a68735698b245edba7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa847…88a5backed Yes | 20c | 10,948$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.84 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…54afbacked Yes | 19c | 7,068$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.42 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 12c | 4,234$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.69 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 6c | 4,088$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.7 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,246$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47a0…1de0backed No | 79c | 2,544$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,537$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,305$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,687$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032c…d460backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,045$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 938.17$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…4252backed Yes | 14c | 876.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 869.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…b707backed Yes | 12c | 865.32$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 749.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…f729backed Yes | 20c | 700$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968e…ca73backed Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac4…ca67backed Yes | 21c | 660$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…6136backed Yes | 3c | 658.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4375…2c0cbacked Yes | 20c | 650.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 603.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c91…e687backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…8083backed Yes | 23c | 585$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8170…4d0fbacked Yes | 22c | 510$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 496.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 17c | 491.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 467.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 21c | 387$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 380.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 255.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…0186backed No | 78c | 255.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 79c | 211$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 75c | 206.22$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 178.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 177.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 22c | 159.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 140.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 20c | 118.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 100.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…7b7dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 77c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.