TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$650,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$616,174

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $650,639 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbacd…ab35backed No5c43,607$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.456622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1c…1cedbacked No4c32,111$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef0…f55dbacked No1c27,264$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.111040%4 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+471.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccec…28ffbacked No7c22,998$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.961330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick12cpaid+420.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x834e…8015backed No5c16,863$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.26425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+625.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No9c14,617$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.516238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb917…9a73backed No1c14,497$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No11c11,537$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.17933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed No6c11,280$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67db…bd86backed No8c11,144$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d1…a8eebacked No11c11,031$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c10,885$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.576883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No9c10,660$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.145420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No7c10,476$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.66812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No9c9,000$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8223234.4%11 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ac…ba11backed No1c7,600$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.41533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed No7c7,135$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4904117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No20c6,478$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.375339.6%21 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed No15c6,230$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.242128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No1c5,970$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.373912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c5,366$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.12939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4f…d11fbacked No5c5,259$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a2…93dabacked No0c5,204$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x874b…b707backed No5c5,140$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.042010%2 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9837…c072backed No8c4,449$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No3c4,419$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.65113.7%7 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+106.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No12c4,264$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…c77cbacked No20c4,231$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff9e…56a1backed No15c4,126$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.366536.9%24 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No9c4,070$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.822416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x137a…6b3fbacked No13c4,039$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63b4…0051backed No8c3,800$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No11c3,610$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-70.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c3,500$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775315.1%8 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e8…712abacked No15c3,361$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500875%6 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+165.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked No3c3,349$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.46160%0 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3217…7d40backed No9c3,333$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No3c3,333$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.667932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0592…70e7backed No3c3,301$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a6e…0cf9backed No13c3,246$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f47…120dbacked No6c3,163$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc8…a41abacked No2c3,065$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe429…fb94backed No5c3,000$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed No8c3,000$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.881050%5 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No16c2,976$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.1824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No7c2,572$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.591050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…b226backed No20c2,483$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad1…4df4backed No3c2,293$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No5c2,221$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.525117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-54.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No6c2,082$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.833423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked No7c2,034$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.37110%0 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No5c2,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.444630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed No9c1,899$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.893212.5%4 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7c…a12abacked No4c1,800$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.71618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x221d…7207backed No9c1,786$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.751216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-54.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed No7c1,722$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.365230.8%16 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d2e…f649backed No5c1,676$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d3…998cbacked No19c1,600$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5499…0ed5backed No14c1,533$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.032433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d76…6dacbacked No7c1,499$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.91442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick20cpaid+223.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1361…8de1backed No11c1,404$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.581637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…7eaabacked No5c1,350$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.94422.7%10 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed No4c1,240$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-73.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,186$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.341,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No12c1,088$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8457636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6533…46d4backed No3c1,075$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed No24c1,071$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.945817.2%10 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed No6c1,005$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.041533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No7c1,003$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.792846.4%13 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+68.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x11e0…7cd5backed No23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4155backed No6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608341%34 W · 49 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked No7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed No18c999.98$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.54729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c12…7a2fbacked No9c996.5$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4e…35fabacked No15c982.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbf…be73backed No8c973.46$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ee…8d47backed No10c872.11$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1424…2850backed No5c853.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c1f…e8e7backed No3c803.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48f…197ebacked No5c778.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1bb…a95dbacked No5c714.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No23c706.97$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…5903backed No8c700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c686.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.331,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a9d…9de8backed No17c649.89$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa779…f660backed No5c612.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ac…54ebbacked No6c599.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f19…065ebacked No4c594.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No6c588.38$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.054766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked No18c587.45$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.742128.6%6 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4241…4da7backed No17c539.32$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.841323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1393…f7fcbacked No4c521.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+74.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bfd…c3c7backed No3c517.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92a…aeb3backed No12c511.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf937…6b43backed No4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1107…857cbacked No21c499.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No5c478$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.311040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No7c444$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.08825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x893b…a6c1backed No6c423.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No3c422.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.416029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.