TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Kweon Seong-dong in jail by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$340,774
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$304,892

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,774 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7616…69eebacked No10c69,796$7,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,323.035431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe893…f2c0backed No12c20,515$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x305d…54afbacked No9c15,047$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.353112.9%4 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No11c14,284$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.57812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No9c12,771$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.257636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02f0…57b6backed No11c12,383$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.81540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+184.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda8e…ef90backed No11c9,491$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.04825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No11c8,694$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.395420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd1…9249backed No9c8,692$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.523339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae7…1884backed No11c8,416$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.613040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No10c6,204$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.386741.8%28 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed No9c6,019$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.726726.9%18 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc7b…b99fbacked No12c5,271$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+113.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No13c4,817$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.073912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd26…4422backed No12c4,637$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.791442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+100.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed No14c4,424$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.44117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No12c3,878$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed No13c3,716$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.961513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-76.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f6…4cf4backed No10c3,612$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked No12c3,000$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3555414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed No13c3,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006238.7%24 W · 38 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+102.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No10c2,700$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.524736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f2…010abacked No9c2,175$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001050%5 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+92.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a4f…829ebacked No9c2,080$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…d7bdbacked No11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x190c…8cf4backed No11c1,818$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1740…a34bbacked No10c1,641$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x859f…112fbacked No14c1,624$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.67714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f3…3df7backed No11c1,521$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.78825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+84.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…b707backed No9c1,511$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1362010%2 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d76…6dacbacked No6c1,451$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.041442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick20cpaid+223.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No7c1,450$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10117921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed No15c1,339$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.592646.2%12 W · 14 L+5.7wins+0.22per pick24cpaid+116.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No7c1,309$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1216616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No12c1,299$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.553625%9 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f0…fe05backed No13c1,108$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.075817.2%10 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab8…9b2ebacked No14c1,076$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked No11c1,059$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.44742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+73.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007317.8%13 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No11c999$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.895339.6%21 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No9c920.58$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.852638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No11c900.2$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a8…7e95backed No12c831.24$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e8…712abacked No13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100875%6 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+165.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x201c…d383backed No11c729.94$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.392236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…3f73backed No13c700$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.533228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No16c699.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1707…93c4backed No21c640$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.43531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked No13c625.23$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.28933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No11c555$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.057423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No9c509.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdefe…20c8backed No10c501.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765b…1a00backed No12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…b1fabacked No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+275.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6780…e6babacked No10c434$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.562825%7 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed No10c363.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.443435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No8c355.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6837117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8ee…5ea5backed No15c355.76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.52333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac1…6b06backed No14c350$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2644…daecbacked No10c325.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.571127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed No13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-88.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d74…09ffbacked No10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No14c252.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.249822.4%22 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8663…b280backed No9c230$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+129%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No13c220$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.619043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No9c219.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.771030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x686a…966bbacked No11c210$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed No14c200.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.024332.6%14 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013139.7%52 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f4…d22dbacked No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a8…6c09backed No14c194.2$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.191369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+1,619.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe15…d56abacked No10c190.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c9…91fbbacked No12c188.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No11c185.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c182.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.011,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked No9c169.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No11c167$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.377631.6%24 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a9d…9de8backed No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203821.1%8 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…c50bbacked No13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x832f…ef80backed No12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183212.5%4 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d88…ba3dbacked No16c125.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…1997backed No12c119.14$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.473225%8 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No11c114.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.617044.1%75 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed No10c110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95032%16 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed No9c110$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15815.5%9 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+40.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x929e…d39abacked No11c110$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db9…d97cbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7eb…423bbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-47.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x76eb…8028backed No13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dec…e5b5backed No13c88.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c88.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2756314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x42f8…7ff4backed No13c84.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f40…6e9ebacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386e…3857backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes76c48.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed Yes77c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.985174.5%38 W · 13 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.