Movies · resolved market
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6024537239b116f9411ddc625199ea08f2959090fb7fb3d1536c8125d8410bca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f28…82e0backed Yes | 0c | 15,577$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 29c | 12,212$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,501.53 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked No | 72c | 6,140$4,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 43c | 5,779$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.4 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 58c | 5,628$3,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,363.3 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 44c | 5,221$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.16 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 78c | 4,000$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 26c | 3,030$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.85 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 32c | 2,925$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 74c | 2,891$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.67 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 65c | 2,336$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.33 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 15c | 2,311$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.2 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 30c | 2,248$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.81 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 39c | 2,225$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.75 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 40c | 2,000$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.91 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 69c | 1,881$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.53 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…7953backed Yes | 22c | 1,707$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 42c | 1,575$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.46 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,526$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 3c | 1,498$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 1c | 1,446$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked No | 43c | 1,276$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b81…274cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 19c | 1,000$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 42c | 958.49$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.81 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 34c | 755$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.7 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 2c | 634.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed No | 52c | 607$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.47 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 529.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…ec13backed Yes | 4c | 501.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 59c | 400.28$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 20c | 337.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 306.3$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 77c | 303.41$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.72 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 25c | 276.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 80c | 250.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 77c | 225$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…95debacked Yes | 5c | 217$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…98ccbacked Yes | 27c | 210$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 48c | 209.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 67c | 206.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 38c | 194$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 65c | 180.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…f973backed Yes | 70c | 171.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 33c | 170$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 140$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 38c | 130.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…434abacked Yes | 40c | 125.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes | 42c | 123.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…c1b8backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 14c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 34c | 105.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 62c | 95.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 34c | 95.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 39c | 77.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 75.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 35c | 70.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…fd19backed Yes | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 48.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…5ad8backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 34c | 34.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…7540backed No | 60c | 19.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 51c | 19.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $67m and 72m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross less than $67m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.