Movies · resolved market
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x469fe4b62881db727fea53e4ba14e2bd75cc542ead5e6eaac62e31290dbf446b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5a0…2265backed No | 62c | 27,122$16,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,306.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfb…2ab9backed Yes | 38c | 27,122$10,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,306.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 4c | 10,613$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 15c | 6,463$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.89 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 10c | 5,231$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.48 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 34c | 3,356$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.2 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…c521backed No | 74c | 3,075$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 24c | 2,923$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.89 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 37c | 2,330$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.29 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 2,225$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.91 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 26c | 2,108$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.61 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 19c | 2,005$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.6 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 19c | 1,788$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.58 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,319$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,217$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,210$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.69 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 35c | 1,015$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.57 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 3c | 957.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 840.92$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 29c | 755$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.3 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 45c | 587.14$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.21 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 72c | 501.04$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.35 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 28c | 486.49$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…7953backed Yes | 21c | 472.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 425.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 72c | 418.1$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 73c | 403.33$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…82e0backed Yes | 3c | 373.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 3c | 368.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 21c | 336.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 57c | 279.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…98ccbacked Yes | 27c | 256.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 247.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…e921backed Yes | 10c | 220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 11c | 204.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 12c | 161.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…9a64backed Yes | 25c | 121.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 38c | 118.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 75c | 110.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 21c | 94.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 23c | 92.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 42c | 67.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 39c | 63.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 32c | 46.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 61c | 17.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $67m and 72m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross less than $67m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.