Movies · resolved market
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross less than $67m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4fbd46c413fbe4dbec0702d812c6de8c9b14462c9b12992efaa7f60aca5cadb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 1c | 16,254$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.91 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,395$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 1c | 3,249$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 7c | 1,301$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,245$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 1c | 732.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 4c | 421$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked Yes | 12c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross less than $67m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $67m and 72m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.