Movies · resolved market
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5924f73c56d2dbb13b7e26c1a40c30aab599cd3735f6c272318c1237de9baf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 3c | 10,207$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 20c | 5,200$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.58 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 12c | 3,000$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,648.55 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 78c | 2,406$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876.67 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 10c | 2,110$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.6 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 80c | 1,250$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked No | 79c | 1,021$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.59 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 7c | 796$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.35 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 69c | 744.63$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.73 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 2c | 555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 44c | 496.86$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.81 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 436.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 11c | 384.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.26 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 5c | 369.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 14c | 348.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.21 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 18c | 333.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.7 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 14c | 280$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.69 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…98ccbacked Yes | 17c | 280$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…ec13backed No | 8c | 266.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 16c | 218.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 9c | 184.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.07 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 146.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 96.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 77c | 86.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 76c | 70.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…7540backed No | 24c | 54.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 47.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 31c | 33.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe976…35abbacked Yes | 76c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $67m and 72m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $77m and 82m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross less than $67m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Thunderbolts' gross more than $82m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.