Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Siversk before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6243623b48dbccc42461df4e3c478a467de726eee19a477df0911f77b38cba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18f2…7336backed Yes | 14c | 10,135$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 15c | 7,994$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.35 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,851$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 1c | 5,462$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed Yes | 8c | 2,942$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 14c | 2,272$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.63 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 3c | 1,940$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…1427backed Yes | 13c | 1,715$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 11c | 1,659$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5352backed Yes | 12c | 1,288$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce44…abc5backed Yes | 7c | 1,207$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,206$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.42 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 1,155$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.98 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 12c | 1,125$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 2c | 849.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 10c | 726.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 16c | 631.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…711cbacked Yes | 13c | 613.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 557.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 13c | 509.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 451.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 448.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…b749backed Yes | 12c | 400.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 10c | 385.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb174…d896backed Yes | 14c | 370.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 10c | 367.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…df89backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1036backed Yes | 13c | 265$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…4f2bbacked Yes | 19c | 259.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…42e2backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a40abacked Yes | 12c | 241.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509e…63edbacked Yes | 9c | 214.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…1fa4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…21debacked Yes | 8c | 138.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 15c | 135.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 15c | 105.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…20f1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb0…ac80backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14d…48bcbacked Yes | 15c | 98.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.