Olympics · resolved market
Trump vs. Biden: Staircase Olympics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c930ccdce11158a4de95a3f3f5e9da8aa9176784a8082202c81e2a0a2c0253e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bidenof Trump, Biden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Trump | 11c | 2,974$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…3a42backed Trump | 11c | 2,908$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…237abacked Trump | 7c | 2,434$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Trump | 7c | 1,769$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Trump | 12c | 1,768$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.1 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…662cbacked Biden | 27c | 1,141$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Trump | 6c | 1,002$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Biden | 26c | 999.98$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Trump | 70c | 662$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b58…eba2backed Trump | 9c | 645.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Trump | 73c | 600$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Biden | 28c | 550$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…c016backed Trump | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Biden | 28c | 520.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Biden | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Biden | 25c | 443.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa34…66fbbacked Trump | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Biden | 26c | 333$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Trump | 74c | 322.68$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Trump | 74c | 311.68$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…61cabacked Trump | 71c | 294.37$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Trump | 7c | 278.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Trump | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Biden | 24c | 260$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Trump | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed Trump | 73c | 250$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Biden | 29c | 249.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Trump | 42c | 240.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Trump | 18c | 212.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…10bdbacked Trump | 10c | 201.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bb…4ee0backed Trump | 10c | 180.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Biden | 32c | 157$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x023f…c142backed Trump | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Trump | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…c0f8backed Trump | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca5…5881backed Trump | 74c | 130.95$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Trump | 74c | 103.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…1304backed Trump | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Trump | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…1169backed Trump | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…5701backed Biden | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Biden | 29c | 77.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…7bc6backed Biden | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…1cd5backed Trump | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Trump | 73c | 64.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Biden | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…ddf5backed Trump | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Trump | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Biden | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Trump | 73c | 49.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Biden | 26c | 49.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…fad4backed Trump | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057e…f88ebacked Trump | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Trump | 69c | 36.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed Trump | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Biden | 32c | 33.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed Trump | 45c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…a249backed Trump | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…79f1backed Trump | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…62aabacked Trump | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…2322backed Trump | 71c | 15.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0abf…1f10backed Trump | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.