Us Politics · resolved market
Funding lapse without government shutdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f8e62bab322a564f902cb8c72520fecc275093c3ddeede8004993bc8febaf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked Yes | 0c | 39,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 14c | 10,886$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.39 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 5,983$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.42 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 5,846$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.97 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 13c | 2,959$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.11 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,201$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.94 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 14c | 1,765$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.56 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,702$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,695$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,649$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 15c | 1,577$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38d…6c36backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…15dabacked Yes | 9c | 1,358$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,350$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,164$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.24per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 80c | 900$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32d…02c2backed Yes | 12c | 809.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 702.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 14c | 600$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 12c | 583.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…a80cbacked Yes | 13c | 492.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 9c | 466$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 13c | 434.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 402.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 12c | 386.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2674…dc91backed Yes | 14c | 345$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 9c | 280.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 9c | 275$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed Yes | 15c | 243.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 9c | 217$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…e8f1backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f01…ea79backed Yes | 15c | 199.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 6c | 176.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…83a6backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…a973backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…6e29backed Yes | 7c | 164$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa39…822ebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…d32bbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…a95bbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…8fb2backed Yes | 12c | 128.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 9c | 124.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 12c | 119.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…a4e4backed Yes | 13c | 110.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 14c | 106.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…f14fbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 67.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x753a…0e2cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…864dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9a…4836backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.