Middle East · resolved market
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4ec42aaadeca8ac785c444bd70367323bf4aa2139965554a66ffb04745dd1c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,745$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 3,216$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f35…b8a9backed Yes | 5c | 2,056$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…608fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,951$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…4922backed Yes | 5c | 1,942$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3941…f249backed Yes | 4c | 1,403$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…70e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,376$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…e8e7backed Yes | 5c | 1,370$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2242…9bb1backed Yes | 4c | 1,356$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aec…35edbacked Yes | 5c | 1,329$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…b8d9backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…50c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,296$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…68c9backed Yes | 5c | 1,282$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…8bc7backed Yes | 5c | 1,256$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b0…8ae5backed Yes | 5c | 1,234$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c4…1b22backed Yes | 5c | 1,231$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f72…4cd1backed Yes | 5c | 1,223$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9c…e039backed Yes | 5c | 1,220$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,156$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…40c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,082$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…6759backed Yes | 5c | 1,070$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…c6b3backed Yes | 5c | 1,066$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…1b57backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd184…078bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,010$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f86…df06backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ee…af7bbacked Yes | 5c | 990$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…95fbbacked Yes | 5c | 987$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7e…47d1backed Yes | 5c | 984$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00e…bcf3backed Yes | 5c | 976$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5e…26c0backed Yes | 5c | 972$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…652fbacked Yes | 5c | 965$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…b809backed Yes | 5c | 965$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…e3a4backed Yes | 5c | 889$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 827.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 800$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 799$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 775$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 662.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 212.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 18c | 177.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 50c | 60.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31?this page
- Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?No won
- Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.