TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$314,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$309,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,672 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9cb0…d6b0backed Yes35c54,055$18,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,919.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf773…4a03backed No65c53,884$35,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,859.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf99a…bc0bbacked Yes66c34,107$22,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,510.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032f…4679backed No34c34,107$11,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,510.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes72c11,178$8,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,038.392646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes69c9,196$6,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,351.5732639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No27c8,049$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.2318719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes75c7,750$5,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,839.5613150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes60c5,907$3,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.091921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-61.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes44c5,224$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.4916350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes8c4,193$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3536023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes51c3,680$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,876.243339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed No24c2,600$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,97816624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ca…c807backed No20c2,405$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.72837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No14c2,265$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.323041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes10c2,000$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.376732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed No29c1,933$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.284938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes47c1,904$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.5126041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No43c1,750$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.87735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No21c1,598$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.275745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b3b…63b9backed No14c1,251$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.752828.6%8 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes29c1,183$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.892317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No57c1,170$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.73742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7de…b802backed No29c1,152$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.9811836.4%43 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057d…6eddbacked No27c1,136$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.561414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid+57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No14c1,088$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.126639.4%26 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No35c998.19$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.631947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff3c…f8edbacked No10c866.2$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+908.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1854…d1a3backed Yes19c846.36$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1633511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6012…7cd2backed No38c739.43$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed No24c711.84$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.331618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d51…f56cbacked No38c710$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.451020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No44c696.88$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.886833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed No39c654.42$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.577030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes60c565.77$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.0187033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No57c528.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.354131.7%13 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes76c520$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.351353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb4c…33e9backed No22c509.27$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.271811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed No70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501650%8 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes68c500$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3408040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed No4c429.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.53726.9%5 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc815…56b0backed No38c412.82$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.82955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed No35c400$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.510037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No63c396.73$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.22360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No32c387.95$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.5914628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No72c375.91$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.638030%24 W · 56 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-39.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed No64c375$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No36c361.62$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.847252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes12c320.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.911625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes57c309.23$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.153151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked No22c300$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2343423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes77c297.06$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.694553.3%24 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No31c295.59$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.662330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No24c290.01$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.011127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No33c282.65$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.5567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee04…c22bbacked No22c271.63$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.192931%9 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No8c266$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.4414212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed No33c249$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.83955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+80.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes17c242$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.663821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81c1…974cbacked Yes9c236.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.321643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+124.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No40c227.97$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.389851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe567…e4debacked No35c226.31$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.312030%6 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1db9…9917backed Yes46c218.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked No67c211.5$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.351968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+54.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2d9…55b8backed Yes6c209$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011e…c658backed No29c204.36$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079a…ee61backed Yes8c202.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53c4…6582backed No10c201.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.653713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1521136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f8d…6835backed Yes78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa834…71aebacked No41c194.14$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.112147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes69c188.99$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.138536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd240…562cbacked Yes38c187.82$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.523429.4%10 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No36c176.82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0219133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9934…2bbabacked No63c158.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ce…8f60backed No25c149.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.163100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+273.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb270…ed57backed No17c147.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No60c146.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.22965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedfc…6cfebacked Yes8c141$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes24c140.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.124337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No65c132.54$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0120049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x575e…5b86backed No38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.58540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+184.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd74d…85e9backed No73c126.62$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes78c122.57$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.617041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes36c120$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58bb…1bd7backed No57c114$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.66825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a3…5adabacked No36c113$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.861330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c108.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No63c104.69$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8750633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4f7…0331backed No20c101.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…cd12backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c6…0997backed No10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b9…f055backed No33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672030%6 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa378…1927backed No21c91.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f67…55bfbacked No33c82.7$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.411346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes78c81$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…818bbacked No25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca98…7540backed No28c71.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.43837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.