Movies · resolved market
Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $26m or more but less than $29m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c487596f9518aeccbe17289a45baaedf354cfd27ba7ee5ca436487e0b73499d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 5,694$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,721$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c6…0997backed Yes | 0c | 2,687$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 4cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 5c | 1,937$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 3c | 1,496$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 6c | 1,350$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,263$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…d1a3backed Yes | 5c | 976.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 3c | 889.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…33e9backed Yes | 5c | 813.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 693$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 610.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 5c | 586.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 429.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…3ffabacked Yes | 5c | 403.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 383.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked Yes | 4c | 362.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 6c | 331.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 8c | 330.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…7540backed Yes | 5c | 321.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 4c | 292.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 8c | 200.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $26m or more but less than $29m opening weekend?this page
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $20m or more but less than $23m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $23m or more but less than $26m opening weekend?No won
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $29m or more but less than $32m opening weekend?No won
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross $32m or more opening weekend?No won
- Will "Karate Kid: Legends" gross less than $20m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.